Column: Similar teams meet in Super Bowl XXXVIII

By Staff
Josh Taylor / staff writer
Feb. 1, 2004
A powerful defense, a dominant receiving staff without a standout star and a non-Pro Bowl quarterback that no one had heard of three years ago.
This sentence could easily be describing the Carolina Panthers. It could just as easily be describing the New England Patriots.
None of the analysts are giving the Panthers much of a chance in today's big game, but the truth is that these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Here's just how similar these teams are.
The Patriots put up 5,039 yards of total offense in 2003. The Panthers finished the 2003 season with 5,141 yards of total offense. That's only a difference of 102 yards.
The Patriots had 294 first downs in 2003 while the Panthers had 284. New England's defense recorded 40 sacks while Carolina's defense had 41.
The Patriots' average time of possession in 2003 was 30:50. The Panthers averaged 30:27. That's a difference of only 23 seconds.
If those stats don't convince you, how about this one? The highly-touted New England quarterback, Tom Brady, finished the 2003 season with an average completion ratio percentage of 60.2 while the underrated Carolina quarterback, Jake Delhomme, averaged 59.2. Now that's close.
Here are a few more stats just for the fun of it. The Patriots had the 17th-best offense in 2003. The Panthers had the 16th-best offense.
New England and Carolina also finished the 2003 season with the seventh- and eighth- ranked defenses in the league, respectively.
It's hard to deny the facts. These two teams are about as evenly matched as any Super Bowl has been in the past ten years.
Dj vu?
Most people have forgotten how the Patriots were viewed coming in to the Super Bowl two years ago. They were the underdog against a high flying St. Louis Rams team. Nobody thought they could stop Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk, but they did.
The question that comes to my mind is: are the 2004 Panthers a replica of the 2002 Patriots?
The Patriots of today come into this game on a very long winning streak and a bevy of talented players, but listen to the Panthers. I caught part of an interview that Delhomme was giving a few days ago and his words were something along the lines of, "I don't really care how my stats look as long as we win."
Numerous Panther players have been echoing the same sentiment for the last two weeks. "It's all about the team, whatever it takes to win," etc.
This is probably word for word exactly what Tom Brady and the boys were saying two years ago.
The tables have turned since that Super Bowl and the Patriots are now the favorites, but the Panthers have one thing that New England does not. Carolina has nothing to lose.
Super Bowl basics
There are a couple of fundamental laws that will guide today's game. As your local NFL analyst, I thought I would share a few with you.
NOTE: I cannot be held liable for anything predicted or foreseen. Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong. That's how it works. The following are, in general, educated guesses.
1. New England will not be able to run the football on Carolina. The Patriots' running game has been suspect all season. They did have success against the Colts on the ground, but don't expect Carolina to be as easy. The Panthers defense is made up of five guys that are paid a lot of money to stop the run: Julies Peppers, Mike Rucker, Greg Favors, Will Witherspoon and Dan Morgan. These guys are tough.
2. Carolina will have trouble throwing the ball on the Patriots. New England's secondary is stacked with talent including Tyrone Poole and Ty Law. Notice that I said they would have trouble throwing on them, not that it can't be done. A lot of talk this week has been about Carolina's Steve Smith and Muhsin Muhammed. ESPN has somehow bestowed a wide receivers voodoo on these two guys. They are good, but so was the Colts' Marvin
Harrison. The matchup of Carolina's receivers versus New England's cornerbacks could very well determine the game.
3. Stephen Davis will be able to run on the Patriots. I don't expect him to have a record setting day, but he will get the yards needed. He's been doing it all season for the Panthers. Why would he stop now?
4. I have been saying all season that whatever team comes out of the AFC would win the Super Bowl, and I'm sticking to that, partially. The truth is I dont have a clue who will win this game. Both of these teams are extremely talented. My prediction is final score 17-14. You can decide who will get the 17 and who will get the 14.