The most tornado-prone spot in Mississippi
By By Buddy Bynum / editor
April 13, 2003
When the skies darken and the wind whips up and the dog begins a series of low growls and the cat's eyes get really large, you know something's going on with the weather.
Here lately, it's been easy to imagine our own neighborhoods as weather targets, and rightly so. When conditions are right, tornadic activity can strike most anywhere, sometimes with warning, sometimes without.
Over the past few months, we folks here in east central Mississippi have seen our share of weather trouble. The Dec. 19 tornado that struck the town of Newton and parts of Lauderdale County and last weekend's eerie, greenish cloud formations, high winds and, perhaps more importantly, heavy rains are all reminders that the weather we usually take for granted can also take a dangerous turn.
But contrary to popular opinion, neither Dalewood nor Russell nor Newton are the most tornado prone spots in Mississippi. It just seems that way.
A study by Huntsville, Ala.-based VorTek LLC, a company that specializes in the seismic detection of tornadoes, has pinpointed the single spot in Mississippi that is most tornado prone.
It isn't in Lauderdale County. It isn't even Jackson, although calculations based on VorTek's Site Assessment of Tornado Threat 3.0 software have shown Jackson to be the most tornado-prone city with a population in excess of 100,000 in Mississippi. That could be because Jackson is the only city in Mississippi with a population in excess of 100,000.
The most tornado-prone point in the state, without regard to population, has remained unknown until now.
The spot
As part of an ongoing tornado research program, based on National Weather Service data from 1950 through 2001, VorTek determined the most tornado-prone point in Mississippi is situated at latitude 31 58'N, longitude 89 28'W.
Now, for those of you who, like me, prefer to see locations written in words, these coordinates correspond to a location in Smith County, 5.6 miles southeast of Raleigh, 1/4 mile to the north of Beaverdam Road, 0.9 miles east of Highway 37.
During the 52-year period studied, 74 tornado track segments have touched down or passed within 20 miles of this point. This includes nine F0 tornadoes, twenty-two F1, twenty F2, sixteen F3, and seven F4 tornadoes.
And here's one for the mathematicians if the total land area disturbed by these tornadoes is divided by the land area within the 20-mile circle, on an annual basis the average fraction of land disturbed (or Annual Coverage Fraction) equals 1.42310-3 or 0.1423 percent the largest value for any point in Mississippi.
Company history
VorTek is owned by Engineering Analysis Inc., a closely held corporation founded in 1978 by Dr. Frank B. Tatom. Working out of Huntsville, EAI during its 23-year history has carried out engineering research and development studies under contract with more than 43 different government and private agencies.
The principals hold patents on software and other products for the detection of short-period and long-period tornadic seismic signals.
The company's executive summary says its products and services respond to the fact that each year hundreds of millions of dollars in property damage and as many as 100 deaths are caused by tornadoes, the most violent of all forms of atmospheric storms.
Actual sighting by storm spotters or other observers is the only accepted method for detecting when a tornado is on the ground. Based on the Seismic Detection of Tornadoes concept, VorTek is developing a series of networks in tornado-prone cities to provide a longer-range, more reliable method of detecting tornadoes on the ground.
This process involves grids of devices VorTek calls "moles" and "owls" that transmit electronic signals when a tornado is actually detected on the ground.
Doppler radar apparently remains the most reliable source of advance warning. VorTek seems to have very effective products and services. But, so far, no one has developed a solution for saying with certainty, in advance, exactly where a tornado will strike.
To learn more about this company, visit its Web site: http://vortek.home.mindspring.com.
