Eli lottery may be won on West coast

By By Will Bardwell / staff writer
Dec. 4, 2003
It looks like Ole Miss is headed to the Cotton Bowl next month, so let's hope Eli Manning enjoys it. It'll be the last time he plays in the postseason for a while.
That, of course, is because Manning is one of the most drooled-over prospects for the 2004 NFL draft. The good news is he'll soon be worth more than this entire city. The bad news is he'll probably have as many wins during his first few seasons as he has brothers who play for Indianapolis (one, duh).
Scouts have been watching him intently since he first started taking snaps for the Rebels. And soon, they'll get their shot at him but don't expect him to be on the market for very long. He is widely regarded as the top player available for April's draft.
Whether he'll be the first overall pick depends on a lot of things. A team with no need for a young quarterback could have the first pick, or Eli could screw up royally at the scouting combine.
Barring the emergence of a draft-eligible clone of Joe Montana, though, Manning looks poised to be the first quarterback taken in the draft. Like a horde of pubescent schoolboys vying to ask the head cheerleader to the prom, it's a race to see who can gain the most by looking the most inept.
So who's going to get him?
With just four weeks left in the NFL's regular season, the Eli Race seems to be clearing up. San Diego and Atlanta are tied for the worst records in the league at 2-10, and three teams have 3-9 records Jacksonville, Arizona and Oakland.
Ironically, the two teams with the best shots at Manning the Chargers and Falcons have young quarterbacks and don't need him. San Diego isn't about to give up on Drew Brees yet, and Atlanta is obviously heavily invested in Mike Vick.
Besides, I think both teams will pick up another win and maybe two before the end of the year. Vick completely changes the way the Falcons play, and the Chargers have been very competitive over the past two weeks against Cincinnati and Kansas City.
The three teams at 3-9 also have clear paths to the draft's top pick. Jacksonville has snoozers against Houston and Atlanta still to play, but the Jags looked good against Tampa Bay a few nights ago. They may play themselves out of a top five pick, but like the Chargers and the Falcons, they also have an expensive young quarterback rookie Byron Leftwich.
That leaves Arizona and Oakland as the front-runners for Manning's services. Both are in prime position to win (so to speak) the Eli Race, and neither looks capable of winning again this year (although the Raiders might beat San Diego in Week 17).
Most importantly, both Oakland and Arizona need a franchise quarterback in a bad way. Rich Gannon will be eligible for Social Security any day now. And you don't really think the Cardinals are expecting Saints castaway Jeff Blake to lead them to glory, do you?
If I were Eli, I'd be rooting hard against Oakland for the next month. The Cardinals are a cursed franchise with tight pockets, no fans and a shoddy stadium. Oakland, though, is prime time. He could be living large on the West Coast, playing in front of fanatical Raiders fans and sporting the coolest uniform in pro sports.
Plus, since no one in Oakland wears No. 10, Eli could keep his number from Ole Miss. How long would it take until the silver and black jerseys start popping up in Oxford?
The dark horse in this race is Washington. The Redskins are one of five teams at 4-8 right now, and unless they can beat Chicago at Soldier Field in two weeks, they'll probably finish 4-12. Should the five teams ahead of Washington in the Eli Race screw up and win a couple of games, the Redskins might scrap the Patrick Ramsey Project and take Manning. It wouldn't be the first rash move Steve Spurrier has ever made.
Don't discount the possibility of someone trading up to take Eli either. If the top pick goes to Atlanta, San Diego or someone similarly horrible, they have needs that could be solved much quicker by trading the pick for a veteran. Bill Parcells is getting by with Quincy Carter in Dallas, but he's always preferred tall, drop-back quarterbacks. And Brett Favre can't play forever, so the Packers could use him too.
While a trade could happen, my guess is that it won't. I think Oakland will finish 3-13 and take Manning. Even if a couple of teams pick ahead of the Raiders, it won't be anyone who needs Eli.
Wherever he ends up, he'll soon be worth a lot more silver and black jerseys than most of us ever will be.